LGBT POV

Famed numbers cruncher Nate Silvers is out with a new analysis of the marriage equality struggle in Maine. Here’s the money quote:

“Time to play oddsmaker: I’d lay about 3 to 1 against the marriage ban passing. But it’s liable to fairly close — clearly a winnable campaign for conservatives and a losable one for liberals, especially if the sort of complacency sets in that we saw in California*”.

But Julia Rosen, the Courage Campaign’s Online Political Director who is on the ground in Maine helping out, notes that Silver’s analysis does not factor in the other big and perhaps controversial initiatives that will be on the ballot and could effect turnout.

Meanwhile, the No on 1 campaign could use help.