LGBT POV

The effort to return to the California ballot to repeal Prop 8 in 2010 hit a major snag Monday. After conducting “the first phase of extensive and groundbreaking research about public beliefs and concerns about marriage and homosexuality,” the Courage Campaign and Lambda Legal both announced that they are waiting until more hearts and minds are changed before launching another campaign.

Though neither organization released the research data upon which they based their conclusion, I’ve spoken with David Fleischer, a longtime political analyst who heads up the LGBT Mentoring Project and has conducted his own research who reached the same conclusion.

More on that later.  First, here’s what the Courage Campaign and Lambda Legal said, with a response from Restore Equality 2010. (All three press releases can be read in full at the end.)

Rick Jacobs, the Courage Campaign founder and Chair, said in a statement:

“For months, we have laid out the criteria for moving forward. Like the Obama Campaign, we understand that we need a combination of powerful and clear research that informs an expertly run campaign, an unstoppable movement that harnesses the new energy we have seen since the passage of Prop. 8 and the connections through personal stories and outreach in order to win at the ballot box.

We are taking the lessons learned from last year’s Prop. 8 campaign, the campaigns in Maine and other states to understand the fundamental work that must be done before moving forward in California. We also must come together as a community to create a broad coalition and governance structure, put in place a strong manager and secure the resources to win. Right now, the pieces are not all in place to do so confidently.

We must build our ultimate victory from the lessons of our recent disappointments. We know that we can change hearts and minds through real conversations with our friends, family, co-workers and neighbors. This takes time and has to be built to scale — so we can’t delay. When we go back to the ballot, we must be strong, clear and embracing.”

Courage Campaign launched Courageous Conversations, a national effort to encourage the dialogue necessary to change hearts and minds.

Jennifer C. Pizer, Marriage Project Director for Lambda Legal, (pictured here with her wife Doreena Wong) said in a statement:

“Over the past year since Prop 8’s passage, we’ve expanded our community education in California and have seen the remarkable national progress exert a positive influence here.

We’ve seen our many community groups collaborating as never before.  With the great field operations of the Courage Campaign, Vote for Equality, Equality California and countless new activists and allies across the state, the next two years hold great promise.  This work complements the efforts within California’s racial and ethnic minority communities and within the state’s diverse communities of faith.

There has never been any doubt that the LGBT community and our friends and allies will restore marriage equality in California – the only question has been when.  We now believe it’s November 2012.

We’re so close. Each year, each month, public understanding shifts a bit more in our direction.

As crushing as it was to lose in Maine this year and in California in 2008, support is building strongly in our favor:  in 2000, Proposition 22 won with 61 percent of the vote; Proposition 8 passed by a meager margin of only four points.

It’s insulting to have to wait and work to regain a core human right that should never have been taken.  As legal advocates, we know minorities should never have to beg the majority for equal rights.

Given the decision by the California Supreme Court earlier this year, that’s our only path.  It’s essential that we choose wisely when to return to the ballot – while we’re within striking distance, we believe we’re not there yet.”

Restore Equality 2010 (RE 2010), the statewide coalition of organizations committed to repealing Californiaʼs Proposition 8 in 2010, responded quickly.

Jo Hoenninger, chair of the interim Executive Committee for RE 2010, said,

“This is a movement for equality. Harvey Milk didnʼt wait for research. He hit the streets year after year. We honor his memory by gathering signatures now so our rights can be restored in 2010 not at some later time when it might be an easier struggle.

We appreciate the research work done by the Courage Campaign. The results to date – that one-to-one conversations are the most effective way to change hearts and minds – show that it is all the more important for us to continue to have the conversations necessary to gather the signatures for 2010 repeal of Proposition 8.”

RE 2010 continues to work with coalition partner Love Honor Cherish to gather 1 million signatures by next April ensuring a repeal of Proposition 8 is on the California ballot in 2010 through the online site SignforEquality.com.

Jeffrey Taylor, spokesman for RE 2010, said:

“Even though the leadership of the Courage Campaign chooses to wait, many of Courage Campaignʼs members are regional representatives with RE 2010. In fact, 80% of the membership of the Courage Campaign are in favor of a Prop. 8 repeal in 2010.

We look forward to Courage Campaign and many other great organizations keeping their promise to join us when the signature gathering effort has been successful and the ballot campaign commences.”

A Nov. 6 Los Angeles Times/USC poll indicated that nearly 60% of Californian voters do not want to vote on marriage equality in 2010 (56% oppose, 4% don’t know; 41% says vote again in 2010; and 59% of Independents say no to 2010). In the November 2008 election, Californians stripped away marriage through Prop 8 by a vote of 52% to 48%.

Love Honor Cherish’s John Henning interpreted the poll this way:

“This poll says that 51% of people favor marriage rights for same-sex couples, versus 43% opposed. I was overjoyed by this result; the 8 point margin reflects significant movement from the Binder poll taken just a few months ago, which indicated that the state was ‘evenly split’ on same-sex marriage.  Clearly, the poll also indicates that some of the people who favor equal rights would rather not vote on it next year. However, there is no indication from the poll that any of these supporters would switch their position on the issue simply because we subject them to another vote next year.”

Political analyst David Fleischer, however, sees some significant problems in how polls on marriage equality are conducted and interpreted. While his final report will not be completed until January, he gave ne some insights for a story in Frontiers In LA.

Fleischer said:

“I think it’s a mistake to look at any one poll and conclude that we’ve had significant movement on the marriage issue among California voters one way or the other. Over the past several years, we now have a large body of polls.  The clearest indications are that: 1) this is difficult issue on which to poll; error is common when we try to use polls to predict electoral outcome on this issue; and 2) there are very few voters who poll as undecided, and very little evidence of movement on this issue.”

The bottom line, Fleischer said, is that

“any one poll that seems to show significantly different results — either more favorable or less favorable for us — could easily be an outlier, not accurately representing meaningful change in public opinion.  We can be encouraged by one good poll in isolation; but we should not rely on any one poll as a reliable indicator of actual movement in voters’ views that will show up in the next poll, or persist through the next campaign.”

Not only that, but the LGBT community should not rely on the outcomes of the Prop 8 vote itself, Fleischer said.

Fleischer studied the Lake Research internal polling for the No on 8 campaign and concluded that:

“No on 8 was the net beneficiary of wrong-way voting. That means that the Election Day result — that we lost 52% to 48% by roughly 600,000 votes — actually overstates our side’s support from voters.  If voters had voted as they meant to vote, we would have lost 54% to 46% and by roughly 1,000,000 votes.”

That means that people believe the election was closer than it actually was. And while “wrong-way voting” would be significantly reduced in an election where No means No and Yes means Yes, there is more education to be done.

(Regina Clemente and David Fleischer)

Fleischer has been working closely with the Center’s Vote for Equality and its head, Regina Clemente. VFE has been, Clemente told me,

“experimenting to see if we could get undecided and unsupportive voters to have open-ended conversation with us in-person, on their doorsteps.”

Between January and November 2009, they’ve held over 5,500 conversations throughout Los Angeles and, Clemente said, have started gaining

“insight on some things that work and don’t work to move voters. In total, we began to move 555 – or 32% of all undecided/unsupportive voters. Of these moved voters, about 20% were voters who started out in opposition to marriage and by the end of the conversation said they would support of marriage for gay and lesbian couples the next time.”

However, the key questions are: were they really moved and will stay moved?

Additionally, Clemente said,

“I don’t think we can never count on younger voters to turn out equally to older, baby-boomer voters. And while efforts like voter registration are important to an overall strategy, we absolutely need to figure out how to move voters who are not currently supportive to be supportive if we are going to win. New voters – or more young voters – will simply not be enough in a state the size of California, where we lost by a sizable margin in terms of absolute votes.”

Herewith the complete press releases from the Courage Campaign, Lambda Legal, and Restore Equality 2010.

Courage Campaign Calls for More Research and Time to Build Support to Restore Marriage Equality in California

LOS ANGELES, CA — The Courage Campaign today called for more research and time to change hearts and minds before returning to the ballot to restore marriage for gay and lesbian couples in California. At least one initiative to restore same-sex marriage is currently circulating that, if it qualifies, would appear on the November, 2010 ballot.

The Courage Campaign, in partnership with Lambda Legal, has recently concluded the first phase of extensive and groundbreaking research about public beliefs and concerns about marriage and homosexuality. It confirmed that attitudes are shifting steadily toward equal treatment of same-sex couples, and that conversations among family members and other close relationships inevitably speed the process.

The statement released today is concurrent with a Lambda Legal statement.

“For months, we have laid out the criteria for moving forward. Like the Obama Campaign, we understand that we need a combination of powerful and clear research that informs an expertly run campaign, an unstoppable movement that harnesses the new energy we have seen since the passage of Prop. 8 and the connections through personal stories and outreach in order to win at the ballot box,” said Rick Jacobs, the Courage Campaign founder and Chair. “We are taking the lessons learned from last year’s Prop. 8 campaign, the campaigns in Maine and other states to understand the fundamental work that must be done before moving forward in California. We also must come together as a community to create a broad coalition and governance structure, put in place a strong manager and secure the resources to win. Right now, the pieces are not all in place to do so confidently.”

The recently concluded research validated the lasting effect of the work already being done in the successful Camp Courage training program and by 44 Courage Equality Teams organizing across the state in 23 counties. These grassroots efforts are building support for marriage equality by training Californians to tap into their community’s resources to start a conversation and connect the movement for equality to their own lives and their own experiences, along with the broader progressive agenda.

Jacobs hailed the work being done in the field by grassroots activists, saying, “We must build our ultimate victory from the lessons of our recent disappointments,” continued Jacobs. “We know that we can change hearts and minds through real conversations with our friends, family, co-workers and neighbors. This takes time and has to be built to scale — so we can’t delay. When we go back to the ballot, we must be strong, clear and embracing.”

Last week, the Courage Campaign launched Courageous Conversations, a national effort to encourage the dialogue necessary to change hearts and minds. For more information and a map of pledged Courageous Conversations to date, click here:

http://www.couragecampaign.org/CourageousConversations

Lambda Legal Calls for More Education and Time to Restore Marriage Equality in California

“While we’re within striking distance, we’re not there yet.”

Los Angeles, November 30, 2009  - Lambda Legal today called for more outreach, education, research and time to change hearts and minds before returning to the ballot to reopen marriage to gay and lesbian couples in California. At least one initiative to restore marriage equality for same-sex couples is currently circulating that, if it qualifies, would appear on the November, 2010 ballot, but Lambda Legal believes that putting this measure to a vote in 2012 is the strongest strategy.

The Courage Campaign, in partnership with Lambda Legal and other leading groups, has recently concluded the first phase of extensive and groundbreaking research about public beliefs about marriage and gay people.

It confirms that attitudes are shifting steadily toward equal treatment of same-sex couples, and that conversations among family members and other close relationships inevitably speed the process.

“Over the past year since Prop 8’s passage, we’ve expanded our community education in California and have seen the remarkable national progress exert a positive influence here,” said Jennifer C. Pizer, Marriage Project Director for Lambda Legal.

“We’ve seen our many community groups collaborating as never before.  With the great field operations of the Courage Campaign, Vote for Equality, Equality California and countless new activists and allies across the state, the next two years hold great promise.  This work complements the efforts within California’s racial and ethnic minority communities and within the state’s diverse communities of faith. There has never been any doubt that the LGBT community and our friends and allies will restore marriage equality in California – the only question has been when.  We now believe it’s November 2012.”

The recently concluded research validated the lasting effect of the work already being done in the successful Camp Courage program and by Courage Equality Teams organizing across the state. These grassroots efforts are building support for marriage equality by training Californians to tap into their community’s resources to start a conversation and connect the movement for equality to their own lives and their own experiences.  This outreach has surged ahead, fueled by the passion and determination of countless new activists who have committed to this cause within the past year.

“We’re so close,” said Pizer.  ”Each year, each month, public understanding shifts a bit more in our direction.  As crushing as it was to lose in Maine this year and in California in 2008, support is building strongly in our favor:  in 2000, Proposition 22 won with 61 percent of the vote;

Proposition 8 passed by a meager margin of only four points.  It’s insulting to have to wait and work to regain a core human right that should never have been taken.  As legal advocates, we know minorities should never have to beg the majority for equal rights.  Given the decision by the California Supreme Court earlier this year, that’s our only path.  It’s essential that we choose wisely when to return to the ballot – while we’re within striking distance, we believe we’re not there yet.”

RESTORE EQUALITY 2010 MARCHES ON DESPITE DECISION BY COURAGE CAMPAIGN Statewide Coalition Continues to Build, Gather Signatures as Courage Focuses on Other Efforts

(SAN FRANCISCO – 30 November 2009)

Restore Equality 2010 (RE 2010), the statewide coalition of organizations committed to repealing Californiaʼs Proposition 8 in 2010, responded strongly to the statements issued today by the Courage Campaign and Lamba Legal calling for more time before returning to the ballot box.

Jo Hoenninger, chair of the interim Executive Committee for RE 2010, said, “This is a movement for equality. Harvey Milk didnʼt wait for research. He hit the streets year after year. We honor his memory by gathering signatures now so our rights can be restored in 2010 not at some later time when it might be an easier struggle.”

Hoenninger added, “We appreciate the research work done by the Courage Campaign. The results to date – that one-to-one conversations are the most effective way to change hearts and minds – show that it is all the more important for us to continue to have the conversations necessary to gather the signatures for 2010 repeal of Proposition 8 .”

RE 2010 continues to work with coalition partner Love Honor Cherish to gather 1 million signatures by next April ensuring a repeal of Proposition 8 is on the California ballot in 2010. Through the first-of-its-kind social networking site SignforEquality.com signatures have been gathered at locations in every corner of the state of California by volunteers, and have been signed and sent from home by individuals.

“We understand that a grassroots effort takes time to find its feet,” said Jeffrey Taylor, spokesman for RE 2010, “We are staunchly committed to creating increased momentum until we meet our goal. Concurrently, we are working to ensure every place and every population in this great state has a voice in the 2010 campaign when we reach our goal.”

Taylor continues, “Even though the leadership of the Courage Campaign chooses to wait, many of Courage Campaignʼs members are regional representatives with RE 2010. In fact, 80% of the membership of the Courage Campaign are in favor of a Prop. 8 repeal in 2010. “

RE 2010 remains confident even though organizations like the Courage Campaign and Lambda Legal prefer to stand on the sidelines for now.

“We are encouraged by the LA Times poll showing an increase in support among Californians for same-sex marriage (now 51% of Californians favor marriage equality), and we are also encouraged by the initial findings from Courageʼs research showing a shift in our favor as well.” said Taylor.

Hoenninger agrees, “We know this a tough battle, but we are up for the challenge and fully expect those who disagree with us to respect our volunteers.”

Taylor adds, “We look forward to Courage Campaign and many other great organizations keeping their promise to join us when the signature gathering effort has been successful and the ballot campaign commences.”

Restore Equality 2010 is an organization, founded and supported by grassroots organizations throughout California, dedicated to equal marriage rights for all Californians. Our mission is to unite Californians in the campaign to restore marriage equality in 2010 through grassroots activism, signature gathering, outreach, education, and dialogue. You can learn more about Restore Equality 2010 at: http:// www.restoreequality2010.com